Overview

Studies related to climate and climate forecasts are of great value to the advancement of scientific knowledge and social development. Observational and numerical analyses point to relationships between the intras seasonal signal of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) - a crucial factor in weather and climate variations in different regions of the globe - and rainfall over the northeastern sector of Brazil. Longwave radiation (LWR) data were filtered in the 20-70 day band using the Lanczos filter. LWR observational data for the end of 2002 showed intras seasonal variability in the Indian Ocean region, influencing northeastern Brazil at the beginning of 2003. Numerical LWR values obtained with OLAM using Chen's Radiative Parameterization indicate that at the end of 2004 and beginning of 2005, the OMJ had a strong influence on northeastern Brazil. Statistical analyses were applied to determine the correlation between extreme events. The results presented suggest atmospheric patterns over the state of Ceará associated with atmospheric teleconnection patterns on an intras seasonal time scale.

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