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Nadezhda Arbatova (Nadia Alexandrova-Arbatova) is Head of Department of European Political Studies at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences, and Founder and Director of the discussion forum ‘European Dialogues’. Alexander D. Chekov is an Analyst at the Laboratory of International Process Analysis, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO-University). Anna V. Makarycheva is a Research Fellow at the Laboratory of International Process Analysis, MGIMO-University. Anastasia M. Solomentseva is Deputy Director of the School of Government and International Affairs, MGIMO-University. Maxim A. Suchkov, the lead author of this article, is a Senior Research Fellow at the Laboratory of International Process Analysis, MGIMO-University. Andrey A. Sushentsov is the Director of the Laboratory of International Process Analysis, MGIMO-University. Dmitry (Dima) Adamsky is a professor at the School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy at the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya. Pierre Noël is IISS Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security. A version of this commentary appeared on Politics and Strategy, the Survival editors’ blog, on 18 September 2019. Rodric Braithwaite was British ambassador in Moscow (1988–92) and Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee (1992–93). He is author of Armageddon and Paranoia: The Nuclear Confrontation (Profile Books, 2017).

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