Overview

"George H. Quester argues that the possibility of nuclear war continues to loom despite the reduction in stockpiles by the major powers. Supporters of total nuclear disarmament often dismiss pessimistic objections to the possibility of reaching nuclear zero as being hypothetical, but this book looks at real illustrations for this possibility, taken from the years that gave the world the Manhattan Project. Any advocate of total nuclear disarmament must deal with the challenge of ""realist"" analysts of international relations, those who worry that being at zero nuclear weapons, or even close to zero, would be unstable and dangerous. Mutual fears could be self-confirming, leading to cheating on disarmament, and even nuclear war. While such fears are often dismissed as theoretical or hypothetical, this book attempts to test them against the real-life experience of the last time we were at nuclear zero. The years from 1933 to 1945 saw many such self-confirming fears, leading to the Manhattan Project and the nuclear destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Optimism about the future cannot be ruled out totally, but the history of our experience with nuclear disarmament must be examined carefully to identify the crucial prerequisites for elimination of such weapons of mass destruction. This book is required reading for courses on arms control, defense policy, and international relations, or for readers looking for historical background on a critical global issue."

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9781412855990

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Reviews

"-In a world without nuclear weapons, would peace prevail? Answering this question is not a purely abstract, analytical exercise. In Nuclear Zero? Lessons from the Last Time We Were There, George Quester analyzes the strategic and political factors that drove nuclear decision making in the 1930s and 1940s. He concludes that the strategic dynamics of arms racing--prisoners' dilemmas, preemptive fears, dual-use complications, secrecy and uncertainty--are powerful and enduring. The lesson for the 21st century is that the process of getting to zero will be difficult and could be dangerous. This book makes major contributions to nuclear history, strategic studies, and current policy debates about the prospects for nuclear disarmament. It is a tour de force from one of the field's greatest scholars and sharpest thinkers.- --Michael E. Brown, George Washington University -At first glance it seems impossible to get empirical evidence on what the world would look like if nuclear weapons were abolished. But with the creativity and skill that we have come to expect from him, George Quester does so by looking at the 1940s. The results are fascinating, and both that world and the arguments for nuclear abolition appear in a different light.- --Robert Jervis, Columbia University -Most people would surely like to live in a world without nuclear weapons. George Quester shows in subtle and sophisticated ways that this is not going to happen, and moreover, it is not smart to pursue this goal. Indeed, it would probably make the world more dangerous. Nuclear Zero? is a terrific book that should be read by anyone interested in how nuclear weapons affect international politics.- --John J. Mearsheimer, The University of Chicago -This is a most unusual book . . . a meticulous history of debate among all those most concerned with the issue of 'no nuclear weapons' during the crucial period when it was the main preoccupation of all those most concerned and responsible for decisions in the 1930s and 1940s, from Roosevelt and Churchill to Stalin, to Neils Bohr and Hans Bethe, LeO SzilArd and Peter Kapitsa, General Groves and J. Robert Oppenheimer, long before it became a preoccupation of civilian arms controllers. The author, with good taste, refrains from promoting his own conclusions, letting the arguments do their work.- --Thomas C. Schelling, University of Maryland -Nuclear Zero? adds significantly to George Quester's already distinguished contributions to our understanding of nuclear weapons and deterrence. Nuclear Zero? provides a theory-driven inquiry into the history of the development of nuclear weapons. Quester's recounting of the history is fascinating and nuanced. He shows that skeptics are correct that fears of rearmament driven by prisoner-dilemma pressures would likely make disarmament both difficult to achieve and maintain, and dangerous as well. Quester illustrates the basic arguments by showing how scientists and leaders confronted the trade-offs between transparency and secrecy, adopted worst-case analyses, and grappled with technical challenges--for example, dual use technologies--that would likely reoccur in one form or another if states move once again toward nuclear zero.- --Charles L. Glaser, The George Washington University ""In a world without nuclear weapons, would peace prevail? Answering this question is not a purely abstract, analytical exercise. In Nuclear Zero? Lessons from the Last Time We Were There, George Quester analyzes the strategic and political factors that drove nuclear decision making in the 1930s and 1940s. He concludes that the strategic dynamics of arms racing--prisoners' dilemmas, preemptive fears, dual-use complications, secrecy and uncertainty--are powerful and enduring. The lesson for the 21st century is that the process of getting to zero will be difficult and could be dangerous. This book makes major contributions to nuclear history, strategic studies, and current policy debates about the prospects for nuclear disarmament. It is a tour de force from one of the field's greatest scholars and sharpest thinkers."" --Michael E. Brown, George Washington University ""At first glance it seems impossible to get empirical evidence on what the world would look like if nuclear weapons were abolished. But with the creativity and skill that we have come to expect from him, George Quester does so by looking at the 1940s. The results are fascinating, and both that world and the arguments for nuclear abolition appear in a different light."" --Robert Jervis, Columbia University ""Most people would surely like to live in a world without nuclear weapons. George Quester shows in subtle and sophisticated ways that this is not going to happen, and moreover, it is not smart to pursue this goal. Indeed, it would probably make the world more dangerous. Nuclear Zero? is a terrific book that should be read by anyone interested in how nuclear weapons affect international politics."" --John J. Mearsheimer, The University of Chicago ""This is a most unusual book . . . a meticulous history of debate among all those most concerned with the issue of 'no nuclear weapons' during the crucial period when it was the main preoccupation of all those most concerned and responsible for decisions in the 1930s and 1940s, from Roosevelt and Churchill to Stalin, to Neils Bohr and Hans Bethe, LeO SzilArd and Peter Kapitsa, General Groves and J. Robert Oppenheimer, long before it became a preoccupation of civilian arms controllers. The author, with good taste, refrains from promoting his own conclusions, letting the arguments do their work."" --Thomas C. Schelling, University of Maryland ""Nuclear Zero? adds significantly to George Quester's already distinguished contributions to our understanding of nuclear weapons and deterrence. Nuclear Zero? provides a theory-driven inquiry into the history of the development of nuclear weapons. Quester's recounting of the history is fascinating and nuanced. He shows that skeptics are correct that fears of rearmament driven by prisoner-dilemma pressures would likely make disarmament both difficult to achieve and maintain, and dangerous as well. Quester illustrates the basic arguments by showing how scientists and leaders confronted the trade-offs between transparency and secrecy, adopted worst-case analyses, and grappled with technical challenges--for example, dual use technologies--that would likely reoccur in one form or another if states move once again toward nuclear zero."" --Charles L. Glaser, The George Washington University ""In a world without nuclear weapons, would peace prevail? Answering this question is not a purely abstract, analytical exercise. In Nuclear Zero? Lessons from the Last Time We Were There, George Quester analyzes the strategic and political factors that drove nuclear decision making in the 1930s and 1940s. He concludes that the strategic dynamics of arms racing--prisoners' dilemmas, preemptive fears, dual-use complications, secrecy and uncertainty--are powerful and enduring. The lesson for the 21st century is that the process of getting to zero will be difficult and could be dangerous. This book makes major contributions to nuclear history, strategic studies, and current policy debates about the prospects for nuclear disarmament. It is a tour de force from one of the field's greatest scholars and sharpest thinkers."" --Michael E. Brown, George Washington University ""At first glance it seems impossible to get empirical evidence on what the world would look like if nuclear weapons were abolished. But with the creativity and skill that we have come to expect from him, George Quester does so by looking at the 1940s. The results are fascinating, and both that world and the arguments for nuclear abolition appear in a different light."" --Robert Jervis, Columbia University ""Most people would surely like to live in a world without nuclear weapons. George Quester shows in subtle and sophisticated ways that this is not going to happen, and moreover, it is not smart to pursue this goal. Indeed, it would probably make the world more dangerous. Nuclear Zero? is a terrific book that should be read by anyone interested in how nuclear weapons affect international politics."" --John J. Mearsheimer, The University of Chicago ""This is a most unusual book . . . a meticulous history of debate among all those most concerned with the issue of 'no nuclear weapons' during the crucial period when it was the main preoccupation of all those most concerned and responsible for decisions in the 1930s and 1940s, from Roosevelt and Churchill to Stalin, to Neils Bohr and Hans Bethe, LeO SzilArd and Peter Kapitsa, General Groves and J. Robert Oppenheimer, long before it became a preoccupation of civilian arms controllers. The author, with good taste, refrains from promoting his own conclusions, letting the arguments do their work."" --Thomas C. Schelling, University of Maryland ""Nuclear Zero? adds significantly to George Quester's already distinguished contributions to our understanding of nuclear weapons and deterrence. Nuclear Zero? provides a theory-driven inquiry into the history of the development of nuclear weapons. Quester's recounting of the history is fascinating and nuanced. He shows that skeptics are correct that fears of rearmament driven by prisoner-dilemma pressures would likely make disarmament both difficult to achieve and maintain, and dangerous as well. Quester illustrates the basic arguments by showing how scientists and leaders confronted the trade-offs between transparency and secrecy, adopted worst-case analyses, and grappled with technical challenges--for example, dual use technologies--that would likely reoccur in one form or another if states move once again toward nuclear zero."" --Charles L. Glaser, The George Washington University"

In a world without nuclear weapons, would peace prevail? Answering this question is not a purely abstract, analytical exercise. In <em>Nuclear Zero? Lessons from the Last Time We Were There</em>, George Quester analyzes the strategic and political factors that drove nuclear decision making in the 1930s and 1940s. He concludes that the strategic dynamics of arms racing--prisoners' dilemmas, preemptive fears, dual-use complications, secrecy and uncertainty--are powerful and enduring. The lesson for the 21st century is that the process of getting to zero will be difficult and could be dangerous. This book makes major contributions to nuclear history, strategic studies, and current policy debates about the prospects for nuclear disarmament. It is a <em>tour de force</em> from one of the field's greatest scholars and sharpest thinkers. </p> --Michael E. Brown, George Washington University</p> At first glance it seems impossible to get empirical evidence on what the world would look like if nuclear weapons were abolished. But with the creativity and skill that we have come to expect from him, George Quester does so by looking at the 1940s. The results are fascinating, and both that world and the arguments for nuclear abolition appear in a different light. </p> --Robert Jervis, Columbia University</p> Most people would surely like to live in a world without nuclear weapons. George Quester shows in subtle and sophisticated ways that this is not going to happen, and moreover, it is not smart to pursue this goal. Indeed, it would probably make the world more dangerous. Nuclear Zero?</em> is a terrific book that should be read by anyone interested in how nuclear weapons affect international politics. </p> --John J. Mearsheimer, The University of Chicago</p> This is a most unusual book . . . a meticulous history of debate among all those most concerned with the issue of 'no nuclear weapons' during the crucial period when it was the main preoccupation of all those most concerned and responsible for decisions in the 1930s and 1940s, from Roosevelt and Churchill to Stalin, to Neils Bohr and Hans Bethe, LeO SzilArd and Peter Kapitsa, General Groves and J. Robert Oppenheimer, long before it became a preoccupation of civilian arms controllers. The author, with good taste, refrains from promoting his own conclusions, letting the arguments do their work. </p> --Thomas C. Schelling, University of Maryland</p> Nuclear Zero? </em>adds significantly to George Quester's already distinguished contributions to our understanding of nuclear weapons and deterrence. Nuclear Zero?</em> provides a theory-driven inquiry into the history of the development of nuclear weapons. Quester's recounting of the history is fascinating and nuanced. He shows that skeptics are correct that fears of rearmament driven by prisoner-dilemma pressures would likely make disarmament both difficult to achieve and maintain, and dangerous as well. Quester illustrates the basic arguments by showing how scientists and leaders confronted the trade-offs between transparency and secrecy, adopted worst-case analyses, and grappled with technical challenges--for example, dual use technologies--that would likely reoccur in one form or another if states move once again toward nuclear zero. </p> --Charles L. Glaser, The George Washington University</p>

In a world without nuclear weapons, would peace prevail? Answering this question is not a purely abstract, analytical exercise. In Nuclear Zero? Lessons from the Last Time We Were There, George Quester analyzes the strategic and political factors that drove nuclear decision making in the 1930s and 1940s. He concludes that the strategic dynamics of arms racing--prisoners' dilemmas, preemptive fears, dual-use complications, secrecy and uncertainty--are powerful and enduring. The lesson for the 21st century is that the process of getting to zero will be difficult and could be dangerous. This book makes major contributions to nuclear history, strategic studies, and current policy debates about the prospects for nuclear disarmament. It is a tour de force from one of the field's greatest scholars and sharpest thinkers. --Michael E. Brown, George Washington University At first glance it seems impossible to get empirical evidence on what the world would look like if nuclear weapons were abolished. But with the creativity and skill that we have come to expect from him, George Quester does so by looking at the 1940s. The results are fascinating, and both that world and the arguments for nuclear abolition appear in a different light. --Robert Jervis, Columbia University Most people would surely like to live in a world without nuclear weapons. George Quester shows in subtle and sophisticated ways that this is not going to happen, and moreover, it is not smart to pursue this goal. Indeed, it would probably make the world more dangerous. Nuclear Zero? is a terrific book that should be read by anyone interested in how nuclear weapons affect international politics. --John J. Mearsheimer, The University of Chicago

Author Information

George H. Quester is professor emeritus at the University of Maryland, USA. He has taught defence policy and arms control, American foreign policy, and international relations at Harvard and Cornell universities, UCLA, the National War College, the United States Naval Academy, and George Washington University, USA.

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