Overview

Living with the Unexpected deals with complexity and uncertainty, two major challenges in a world faced with climate change and hazards. The study focuses on appropriate methods which enable vulnerable communities to cope effectively with natural hazards and disasters. The central goal of the book is an applicable combination of hazard management and development planning. Therefore, the reconstruction process following a disaster is understood as an opportunity for structural changes and self-organisation processes that foster sustainable development. In this context the potential of scenario planning as an evolutionary and participatory learning approach is addressed. The empirical research concentrates on the time before and during the volcanic crisis on the Caribbean Island Montserrat. Particular methods used are a systematic analysis of the complex system Montserrat, more than 200 interviews with stakeholders and citizens – concentrating on resource and hazard perceptions – as wellas the organization and execution of various scenario workshops. The study shows that the opportunity to realise sustainable development on the island with the help of a participative, adaptive reconstruction process is better than ever. The population is sensitised to disasters and an uncertain future. Their preparedness to accept measures which are designed to reduce their vulnerability is high. This book demonstrates how we can learn to live with the Unexpeted. 

Full Product Details

Author:   Anja Possekel ,  I. Adams
Publisher:   Springer-Verlag Berlin and Heidelberg GmbH & Co. KG
Imprint:   Springer-Verlag Berlin and Heidelberg GmbH & Co. K
Edition:   Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1999
Dimensions:   Width: 15.50cm , Height: 1.60cm , Length: 23.50cm
Weight:   0.464kg
ISBN:  

9783642642760

ISBN 10:   3642642764
Pages:   287
Publication Date:   26 September 2011
Audience:   Professional and scholarly ,  Professional & Vocational
Format:   Paperback
Publisher's Status:   Active
Availability:   Manufactured on demand  
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Table of Contents

1 Introduction.- 2 Theoretical Reflections.- 2.1 Complexity and Uncertainty.- 2.2 Resources and Uncertainty.- 2.3 Hazard Research and Complexity.- 2.4 Challenges to Geography.- 3 Strategic Planning as Methodical Consequence.- 3.1 What is Strategic Planning?.- 3.2 What are Scenarios?.- 3.3 Procedures of Scenario Planning.- 3.4 Potentials and Problems of Scenario Planning.- 3.5 Methodical Consequences for this Paper.- 4 Montserrat - A Complex System.- 4.1 Montserrat Before the Volcanic Crisis - Dealing with Uncertainty?.- 4.2 Montserrat During the Volcanic Crisis - Coping with Uncertainty.- 5 Structuring the Future and Hazard Management - Scenarios as a Participative Planning Method for Reconstruction.- 5.1 Reconstruction Determined by Long-term Objectives.- 5.2 The Relevance of Participation.- 5.3 Scenarios in Hazard Management.- 6 Living on the Edge of a Volcano - Scenarios for Montserrat.- 6.1 A First Approach - Pre-Testing the Scenario Method.- 6.2 Second Approximation - The ScenarioMethod in a Hazard Situation.- 7 Living with the Unexpected - Perspectives for a Constructive Dealing with Complexity and Uncertainty.- References.

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