Overview
This book analyzes the concept of likelihood of success in just war thinking and argues that if the concept should be retained, it must be reconsidered within the overall whole of the tradition of just war. The concept of likelihood of success has stood out as particularly troublesome to thinkers and practitioners in the just war tradition. The idea, while related to the other categories of just war, such as proportionality and military necessity, can at times be confused with being an absolute rather than a co-belligerent criterion within the broader just war canon. With such an abstraction, justice can be collapsed into a kind of pragmatic calculation, favoring the powerful, and virtually invalidating insurrection, rebellion, or resistance. This volume brings together scholars and experts from across the tradition to reconsider and reconceptualize the likelihood of success. It analyzes this concept not only in light of the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza, but also in historical cases such as Thermopylae or the Russo-Finnish Winter War. It also examines how we categorize and calculate the likelihood of success and what, after all, we mean by ""success."" Further, the volume considers how close or far from the target we should get, or expect to get, before claiming that a war is ""unjust"" or immoral, and raises the issue of the destructiveness caused by defenders themselves. This book will be of interest to students of just war theory, military ethics, statecraft, and international relations generally.
Full Product Details
Author: Eric Patterson (Regent University, VA, USA) ,
Robert J. Joustra (Redeemer University College, Canada)
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Ltd
Imprint: Routledge
Weight: 0.580kg
ISBN: 9781041098751
ISBN 10: 1041098758
Pages: 212
Publication Date: 25 November 2025
Audience:
College/higher education
,
Professional and scholarly
,
Tertiary & Higher Education
,
Professional & Vocational
Format: Hardback
Publisher's Status: Active
Availability: Manufactured on demand
We will order this item for you from a manufactured on demand supplier.
Reviews
""Unless you are a pacifist, then deep down you accept that there may be wars worth fighting. But would you morally justify waging a war you cannot, in all likelihood, win? How do you even measure the likelihood of success or defeat? The editors of this volume posed these questions to experts in the field of just war theory. Their responses offer powerful insights into how the likelihood of success impacts our moral judgements, the advantages and pitfalls of being guided by such moral machinations, and alternative ways of judging the relationship between winning and whether it is just to take to the battlefield. A timely intervertion in just war scholarship..."" Daniel R. Brunstetter, Professor, University of California, Irvine, USA ""Governments frequently go to war and scholars debate their actions without paying much attention to what it means to ‘succeed’ in a given conflict, or how likely that outcome might be. Yet, as currently demonstrated in Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine, and beyond, ideas about ‘success’ entail historic consequences for ethical norms, human suffering, and global security. Boasting a range of intellectual approaches, this volume works through the deontological difficulties of the just war tradition to deliberate rigorously and provocatively on its ‘likelihood of success’ criterion. From humanitarian intervention to atomic bargaining, cyberattacks to technological panaceas, and strategic warfighting to operational battle requirements, Joustra and Patterson’s collection initiates important discussions about defining and assessing an idea – ‘success’ – that proves evocative and elusive in the messy, morally murky, and motivationally mixed times in which wars unfold."" Andrew Hom, University of Edinburgh, UK
Author Information
Eric Patterson (PhD, University of California, Santa Barbara) is president & CEO of the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, a scholar-at-large, the former dean of the School of Government at Regent University, USA, and a research fellow and former faculty member at Georgetown University’s Berkley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs. He is the author or editor of 22 books, including Just American Wars: Ethical Dilemmas in U.S. Military History (2019). Robert J. Joustra (PhD, University of Bath) is a professor of politics & international studies at Redeemer University, Canada. He is a senior editor at The Review of Faith & International Affairs and author or editor of many books on religion and politics, including most recently Power Politics & Moral Order – Three Generations of Christian Realism (2022).
