Overview

Since the 2008 crisis it seems the world has changed. We are currently living in a slow growth economic environment that is very different from the one that our parents lived in. Our parents lived through the greatest baby boom in history, that occurred after the end of the second world war. The baby boomers were like a great wave, driving the economy and social change with it. We are currently living in the wake of the demographic bust that followed. This book exposes the underlying forces that are shaping our economy, and which will continue to shape it in the future. Demographic changes and high debt levels are powerful forces that are slowing growth in developed countries. In a couple of decades these same forces will be acting on emerging markets too. Economic cycles, in particular, cycles in real estate are intimately related to private debt levels and the overall economy. Demographic changes to some extent drive real estate cycles and consequently, the long-term behaviour of the economy. The book explains: The main macroeconomic challenges the US economy will be facing, related to demographics and the real estate cycle. It will also provide clues about when it will be relatively safe to invest in US real estate as the echo-boomer generation pick up demand for housing. Why in the coming decades the US will be one of the bright spots in a world with slowing growth, even though it is half way through its own demographic bust. Why the demographic challenges Europe faces from 2018 to 2028 make it the most dangerous period for the European project. Why South Korea after its rapid transition to a developed country is set to experience the two lost decades in economic growth, in similarity to Japan after 1990. Why China's economy is set to slow down as it experiences a demographic bust, mirroring Japan in the 1990s. Why Japan's recent revival with Abenomics is set to fail once its second demographic bust arrives.

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9781546687382

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Carlos Alegria is a Physicist who turned to quantitative finance. Even having moved to finance, he still views himself as a Physicist that now investigates the world we live in a different perspective, a social perspective, how people act and behave. He holds a PhD in Optoelectronics and a PhD in Finance. He has worked in industry and academia in both areas. He is currently a consultant in risk management and systematic trading systems, having previously worked at a large hedge fund in London. His main work interests are the development of systematic trading systems and their risk management; how to invest money; the understanding of macroeconomics, how it drives social change, political movements and long-term investing. He is a passionate Argentine tango dancer. Like a modern semi-nomad he moves around a lot, but now lives in Lisbon, Portugal.

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