Overview

The light-duty vehicle fleet is expected to undergo substantial technological changes over the next several decades. New powertrain designs, alternative fuels, advanced materials and significant changes to the vehicle body are being driven by increasingly stringent fuel economy and greenhouse gas emission standards. By the end of the next decade, cars and light-duty trucks will be more fuel efficient, weigh less, emit less air pollutants, have more safety features, and will be more expensive to purchase relative to current vehicles. Though the gasoline-powered spark ignition engine will continue to be the dominant powertrain configuration even through 2030, such vehicles will be equipped with advanced technologies, materials, electronics and controls, and aerodynamics. And by 2030, the deployment of alternative methods to propel and fuel vehicles and alternative modes of transportation, including autonomous vehicles, will be well underway. What are these new technologies - how will they work, and will some technologies be more effective than others? Written to inform The United States Department of Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards, this new report from the National Research Council is a technical evaluation of costs, benefits, and implementation issues of fuel reduction technologies for next-generation light-duty vehicles. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles estimates the cost, potential efficiency improvements, and barriers to commercial deployment of technologies that might be employed from 2020 to 2030. This report describes these promising technologies and makes recommendations for their inclusion on the list of technologies applicable for the 2017-2025 CAFE standards. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2 Technologies for Reducing Fuel Consumption in Spark-Ignition Engines 3 Technologies for Reducing Fuel Consumption in Compression-Ignition Diesel Engines 4 Electrified Powertrains 5 Transmissions 6 Non-Powertrain Technologies 7 Cost and Manufacturing Considerations for Meeting Fuel Economy Standards 8 Estimates of Technology Costs and Fuel Consumption Reduction Effectiveness 9 Consumer Impacts and Acceptance Issues 10 Overall Assessment of CAFE Program Methodology and Design Appendix A: Statement of Task Appendix B: Committee Biographies Appendix C: Presentations and Committee Meetings Appendix D: Ideal Thermodynamic Cycles for Otto, Diesel, and Atkinson Engines Appendix E: SI Engine Definitions and Efficiency Fundamentals Appendix F: Examples of Friction Reduction Opportunities for Main Engine Components Appendix G: Friction Reduction in Downsized Engines Appendix H: Variable Valve Timing Systems Appendix I: Variable Valve Lift Systems Appendix J: Reasons for Potential Differences from NHTSA Estimates for Fuel Consumption Reduction Effectiveness of Turbocharged, Downsized Engines Appendix K: DOE Research Projects on Turbocharged and Downsized Engines Appendix L: Relationship between Power and Performance Appendix M: HCCI Projects Appendix N: Effect of Compression Ratio of Brake Thermal Efficiency Appendix O: Variable Compression Ratio Engines Appendix P: Fuel Consumption Impact of Tier 3 Emission Standards Appendix Q: Examples of EPA's Standards for Gasoline Appendix R: Impact of Low Carbon Fuels to Achieve Reductions in GHG Emissions (California LCFS 2007 Alternative Fuels and Cleaner Fossil Fuels CNG, LPG) Appendix S: NHTSA's Estimated Fuel Consumption Reduction Effectiveness of Technologies and Estimated Costs of Technologies Appendix T: Derivation of Turbocharged, Downsized Engine Direct Manufacturing Costs Appendix U: SI Engine Pathway NHTSA Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs and Total Costs Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger Appendix W: Technologies, Footprints, and Fuel Economy for Example Passenger Cars, Trucks, and Hybrid Passenger Cars Appendix X: Full System Simulation Modeling of Fuel Consumption Reductions Appendix Y: Acronym List

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