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OverviewChina is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor. Full Product DetailsAuthor: Mitali DasPublisher: International Monetary Fund Imprint: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 9781299265073ISBN 10: 1299265073 Pages: 22 Publication Date: 01 January 2013 Audience: General/trade , General Format: Electronic book text Publisher's Status: Active Availability: In stock We have confirmation that this item is in stock with the supplier. It will be ordered in for you and dispatched immediately. Table of ContentsReviewsAuthor InformationTab Content 6Author Website:Countries AvailableAll regions |