Overview

FINANCIAL TIMES BEST ECONOMICS BOOKS 2020 Advanced nations are headed for a new era of bigger government, with government expenditure set to increase enormously over the next three decades. In all advanced economies, health spending will be driven irresistibly upward by the costs of precision medicine and other new technologies, and the need to repair the weaknesses highlighted by the coronavirus pandemic. Governments will also be compelled to spend big on fighting global warming, fixing ailing infrastructure and providing adequate aged care for a rapidly graying population. The combined effect of these and other spending pressures threatens to drive budget deficits and government debt through the roof. Substantial tax increases will be necessary, most of all in the low-tax United States. Pruning welfare spending will also be high on the agenda in countries with the most comprehensive welfare states. Printing money - as proposed by advocates of modern monetary theory - is not a solution, but a sure route to disaster. Faced with this reality, the political right must abandon pipedreams of smaller government. The left, on the other hand, needs to recognize that there is no room or need for costly projects like a universal basic income. Mankind is not facing the threat of mass technological unemployment, and government spending needs to be focused on addressing real problems rather than imaginary ones. More on the book at.... Author website

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9782970140139

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This deeply-researched and brilliantly-argued book is an honest, clear-minded assessment of the fiscal future that awaits advanced countries in response to changes in healthcare, income support, infrastructure deficits and other powerful drivers of public spending. Robinson's mastery of program details and socioeconomic trends makes this study essential reading for national leaders and public finance specialists. - Allen Schick, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution and Professor Emeritus, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland. This book by an internationally renowned expert in public expenditure management provides a compelling analysis of major recent and future drivers of government spendign in advanced economies...The book is a wake-up call for policymakers, who need to think early and proactively how to contain and finance these escalating costs. It offers a number of suggestions, but also calls for more reflection and analysis on the very difficult policy trade-offs that these trends pose. In my view, a must-read! -- Teresa Ter-Minassian, Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund (2001-2008). This book represents a path-breaking original contribution to our understanding of the future of public finances in advanced economies. It challenges traditional dogmas on drivers of public spending and instead suggests that irrespective of political leaning of governments, advancements in healthcare technology, delayed actions on climate change and long-term care will drive public spending through the roof in coming decades in advanced countries. This book is a wake-up call for policymakers to take action now on emerging challenges or face the wrath of electorates in justifying higher taxes in future. It is a must-read book for policymakers, practitioners, scholars and students. - Anwar Shah, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution; Director, Governance Program, World Bank Institute (2004-2009)and Director, Center for Public Economics, SWUFE, Chengdu/China. Financial pressures emanating from health, long-term care and climate change will translate into higher government spending irrespective of ideological orientations of governments. Marc Robinson underpins his thesis with impressive empirical evidence and deliberate arguments why alternatives appear unlikely. Hard stuff for all foes of big government. - Gerhard Steger, Austrian Federal Budget Director (1999-2014). Marc provides valuable 'contrarian' insights into three major causes for future increases in government spending... 'Bigger Government' provides a well-researched alternative way of looking at the future of government spending. - Barry Anderson, former US Assistant Director for Budget and Acting Director of the Congressional Budget Office. Budgeting is often understood as a result of political strategies and struggles in the political arena, structured by budgeting techniques and frameworks. But when democratic representation works well, public budgets are in the long run determined by basic societal trends and citizens' needs. Marc Robinson's book invites us to take a journey to explore these fundamental trends. With a very pragmatic approach he takes stock of numerous theories and research on different areas of public spending and gives us a broad-based and lively insight into what the future might hold. - Martin Kelleners, Director, Ministry of Finance, Germany; Chair, OECD Network of Senior Budget Officials.

Author Information

Marc Robinson is an internationally-recognized expert on government finances. As a consultant, he has advised more than thirty countries, on all continents and at all stages of development, on budgeting reforms. He has also been a senior civil servant, a professor of economics, and a staff economist at the International Monetary Fund. Dr. Robinson has published in excess of 30 books, monographs and articles on government budgeting issues. He has frequently participated as an invited speaker at conferences and symposiums held by international organizations (including the OECD, European Union, APEC and NATO) and national ministries of finance. He is a member of the OECD Advisory Panel on Budgeting and Public Expenditures. Resident in Switzerland, he is a Swiss and Australian dual national. His website is www.pfmresults.com.

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