Overview

AIDS has appeared in more than 130 countries, and over 100,000 cases of AIDS have been reported in the U.S. alone. More and more, the public will be depending on statisticians to provide answers about the future course of this epidemic. This comprehensive work confronts the problems that are unique to AIDS research and unites them under a single conceptual framework. It focuses on methods for the design and analysis of epidemiologic studies, the natural history of AIDS and the transmission of HIV, methods for tracking and projecting the course of the epidemic, and statistical issues in therapeutic trials. The various methods of monitoring and forecasting this disease receive comprehensive treatment. These methods include back-calculation, which the authors developed; interpretation of survey data on HIV prevalence; mathematical models for HIV transmission; and approaches that combine different types of epidemiological data. Much of this material -- such as a discussion of methods for assessing safety of the blood supply, an evaluation of survey approaches, and methods to project pediatric AIDS incidence -- is not available in any other work.

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9780195076417

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They have accomplished their goals with a very clearly written, comprehensive, and well organized book. This book should be read by all health professionals who need to understand the quantitative aspects of HIV/AIDS epidemics. It will also be a valuable reference book for anyone involved with clinical or epidemiological studies of HIV/AIDS. Dr Chin, University of California This volume presents the contributions that statistical science can make toward current studies in the prevention and control of diseases caused by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), as well as estimating the magnitude and future course of the HIV epidemic ... the author thoroughly examine methods for monitoring and predicting the scope of the AIDS epidemic. American Journal of Public Health, September 1994, Vol. 84, No. 9 the authors of the book under review here became the John Graunts of the HIV epidemic ... Working closely with the CDC, they were involved in the development of many of the statistical methods used in the analysis of HIV/AIDS data ... This book gives a careful description of these methods. In addition, it gives much of the quantitative history of the epidemic in the United States ... should be of particular interest to biostatisticians and epidemiologists who deal with epidemiological data, but should also be of interest to infectious disease scientists who are not necessarily quantitatively oriented. I would recommend the book both as a text and as a reference. Ira M. Longini Jr., Emory University School of Public Health, Science, Vol. 265, September 1994 an impressive and authoritative account of the subject ... While the book is addressed to specialists, a general statistical reader who has not followed work on AIDS is likely to be interested and impressed by the wide range of ideas, techniques and special methods involved D R Cox, Nuffield College, Pub of International Statistical Institute This book draws together the wide range of work undertaken by the authors on the statistical analysis of data on the human immunodeficiency virus ... drawing together an impressive amount of data with statistical methods for their analysis, while highlighting the many problems in interpreting results ... this book provides a clear and readable review of the statistical methods used to gain a better understanding of the AIDS epidemic, which will be useful to both epidemiologists and statisticians. Azra Ghani, St Mary's Hospital Medical School, London, JRSS, Series A, Vol. 158, part 2, 1995

This book draws together the wide range of work undertaken by the authors on the statistical analysis of data on the human immunodeficiency virus ... drawing together an impressive amount of data with statistical methods for their analysis, while highlighting the many problems in interpreting results ... this book provides a clear and readable review of the statistical methods used to gain a better understanding of the AIDS epidemic, which will be useful to both epidemiologists and statisticians. * Azra Ghani, St Mary's Hospital Medical School, London, JRSS, Series A, Vol. 158, part 2, 1995 * an impressive and authoritative account of the subject ... While the book is addressed to specialists, a general statistical reader who has not followed work on AIDS is likely to be interested and impressed by the wide range of ideas, techniques and special methods involved * D R Cox, Nuffield College, Pub of International Statistical Institute * the authors of the book under review here became the John Graunts of the HIV epidemic ... Working closely with the CDC, they were involved in the development of many of the statistical methods used in the analysis of HIV/AIDS data ... This book gives a careful description of these methods. In addition, it gives much of the quantitative history of the epidemic in the United States ... should be of particular interest to biostatisticians and epidemiologists who deal with epidemiological data, but should also be of interest to infectious disease scientists who are not necessarily quantitatively oriented. I would recommend the book both as a text and as a reference. * Ira M. Longini Jr., Emory University School of Public Health, Science, Vol. 265, September 1994 * This volume presents the contributions that statistical science can make toward current studies in the prevention and control of diseases caused by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), as well as estimating the magnitude and future course of the HIV epidemic ... the author thoroughly examine methods for monitoring and predicting the scope of the AIDS epidemic. * American Journal of Public Health, September 1994, Vol. 84, No. 9 * They have accomplished their goals with a very clearly written, comprehensive, and well organized book. This book should be read by all health professionals who need to understand the quantitative aspects of HIV/AIDS epidemics. It will also be a valuable reference book for anyone involved with clinical or epidemiological studies of HIV/AIDS. * Dr Chin, University of California *

All in all this is an excellent book for epidemiologists and statisticians. It will help greatly in predicting what might happen in the future and show how one can change the figures as the facts are presented through the years. This is a highly recommended book for all academic and medical libraries. --AIDS Book Review Journal, University of Illinois at Chicago One might say the authors of the book under review here became the John Graunts of the HIV epidemic. Working closely with the CDC, they were involved in the development of many of the statistical methods used in the analysis of HIV/AIDS data....This book gives a careful description of these methods. In addition, it gives much of the quantitative history of the epidemic in the United States....Should be of particular interest to biostatisticians and epidemiologists who deal with epidemiological data, but should also be of interest to infectious-disease scientists who are not necessarily quantitatively oriented....I would recommend the book both as a text and a reference. --Ira M. Longini, Jr., Emory University School of Public Health, Science This volume presents the contributions that statistical science can make toward current stories in the prevention and control of diseases caused by Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), as well as estimating the magnitude and future course of the HIV epidemic. --American Journal of Public Health [The authors] have accomplished their goals with a very clearly written, comprehensive, and well organized book.[They] provide a complete discussion, with examples, of the many biases that must be considered in using HIV/AIDS data. Their description of the back calculation method, which they developed, is an especially good presentation of the uses and limitation of this method for the estimation of HIV incidence....Should be read by all health professionals who need to understand the quantitative aspects of HIV/AIDS epidemics. It will also be a valuable reference book for anyone involved with clinical or epidemiological studies of HIV/AIDS. --Dr. James Chin, University of California, Berkeley, Epidemiology Monitor This book, by two workers who have made very important contributions of their own, is an impressive and authoritative account of the subject....While the book is addressed to specialists, a general statistical reader who has not followed work on AIDS is likely to be interested and impressed by the wide range of ideas, techniques and special methods involved. --Short Book Reviews, a publication of the International Statistical Institute That this book succeeds so well is a tribute to the authors' effort in evaluating statistical material, showing the relationship among differing approaches, and communicating clearly. The mathematical level rarely requires anything beyond a college calculus course and basic courses in probability, inference, and survival methods...the achievement of Brookmeyer and Gail, reflecting the work of hundreds of statisticians and other scientists, helps assure that appropriate methods will be used in the future - not only in AIDS research, but also in related problems as well. Because of its accessibility to a fairly broad readership it will be of interest to a wide range of quantitative scientists studying AIDS or other infectious diseases.--Victor DeGruttola, Harvard University This book puts together most of the material available up to 1992 in a logical and structured approach, and I would highly commend the authors for the clarity and presentation of their review. --Journal of Public Health Medicine

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