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OverviewThis book highlights the estimate of epidemic characteristics for different countries/regions in the world with the use of known SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model for the dynamics of the epidemic, the known exact solution of the linear differential equations and statistical approach developed before. The COVID-19 pandemic is of great interest to researchers due to its high mortality and a negative impact to the world economy. Correct simulation of the pandemic dynamics needs complicated mathematical models and many efforts for unknown parameters identification. The simple method of detection of the new pandemic wave is proposed and SIR model generalized. The hidden periods, epidemic durations, final numbers of cases, the effective reproduction numbers and probabilities of meeting an infected person are presented for countries like USA, Germany, UK, the Republic of Korea, Italy, Spain, France, the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, and for the world. The presented information is useful to regulate the quarantine activities and to predict the medical and economic consequences of different/future pandemics. Full Product DetailsAuthor: Igor NesterukPublisher: Springer Verlag, Singapore Imprint: Springer Verlag, Singapore Edition: 1st ed. 2021 Weight: 0.454kg ISBN: 9789813364158ISBN 10: 9813364157 Pages: 172 Publication Date: 11 February 2021 Audience: Professional and scholarly , Professional & Vocational Format: Hardback Publisher's Status: Active Availability: Manufactured on demand  We will order this item for you from a manufactured on demand supplier. Table of ContentsIntroduction 1. Data used for calculations, comparisons and verifications 2. Early stages of epidemics and exponential growth 3. Comparisons of the early stages of Covid-19 pandemic in different regions 4. Classical SIR model and the exact solution of differential equations 5. Statistics-based procedure of the parameter identification for the classical SIR model 6. Probability of meeting an infected person 7. Estimations of the effective reproduction number 8. Results of SIR simulation for the pandemic dynamics in different countries and regions 9. Hidden periods of Covid-19 pandemic 10. Long-time predictions for the pandemic dynamics 11. Identification of the new waves of the Covid-19 pandemic 12. General SIR model and its exact solution 13. Procedures of the parameter identification for the waves of epidemics 14. Applications of the general SIR model for calculations of the Covid-19 epidemic waves in Ukraine 15. Global waves of Covid-19 pandemic 16. ConclusionsReviewsI appreciated the book's clear and accessible writing, which provides the reader with a smooth introduction to pandemic modeling. ... I would recommend this book to a range of possible audiences: third-and fourth-year undergraduate students in mathematical disciplines; epidemiologists with some mathematical background who want to learn more about transmission modeling; and graduate students and faculty ... . book's lucid approach with in-depth country case studies will be helpful for learning more about applying mathematical models to inform pandemic response. (Chris Bauch, SIAM Review, Vol. 64 (1), March, 2022) “I appreciated the book's clear and accessible writing, which provides the reader with a smooth introduction to pandemic modeling. … I would recommend this book to a range of possible audiences: third-and fourth-year undergraduate students in mathematical disciplines; epidemiologists with some mathematical background who want to learn more about transmission modeling; and graduate students and faculty … . book's lucid approach with in-depth country case studies will be helpful for learning more about applying mathematical models to inform pandemic response.” (Chris Bauch, SIAM Review, Vol. 64 (1), March, 2022) Author InformationDr. Igor Nesteruk is Leading Researcher at the Institute of Hydromechanics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, and Head of Laboratory of Biomedical Electronics at Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute. His main research interests are inverse non-steady problems of fluid mechanics, supercavitation, flow control, biomedical signal processing and mathematical simulations of infectious diseases. Tab Content 6Author Website:Countries AvailableAll regions |
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