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Overview"In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know--and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions ""what is risk analysis?"" and ""how do I do this?"" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, the book provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. In the first part of the book, readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks--risk management, assessment, and communication. The second part of the book supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles. From problem identification and brainstorming to model building and choosing a probability distribution, the author walks readers through the how-to of risk assessment. Addressing the critical task of risk communication, he explains how to present the results of assessments and how to develop effective messages. The book's simple and straightforward style--based on the author's decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator--strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. Additional exercises as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools(R) Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download." Full Product DetailsAuthor: Charles Yoe (Notre Dame of Maryland University, Baltimore, USA)Publisher: Taylor & Francis Inc Imprint: CRC Press Inc Dimensions: Width: 15.60cm , Height: 3.30cm , Length: 23.40cm Weight: 0.930kg ISBN: 9781439857496ISBN 10: 1439857490 Pages: 584 Publication Date: 15 September 2011 Audience: College/higher education , General/trade , Tertiary & Higher Education , General Replaced By: 9781138478206 Format: Hardback Publisher's Status: Out of Stock Indefinitely Availability: In Print  Limited stock is available. It will be ordered for you and shipped pending supplier's limited stock. Table of ContentsThe Basics What is Risk? What Is Risk Analysis? Why Do Risk Analysis? Who Does Risk Analysis? When Should We Do Risk Analysis? Organization of Book Uncertainty Uncertainty from 75,000 Feet The Uncertainty on Your Desk Being Intentional About Uncertainty Risk Management Identifying Problems and Opportunities Risk Estimation Risk Evaluation Risk Control Risk Monitoring Risk Management Models Risk Assessment What Makes a Good Risk Assessment? Definitions Risk Assessment Activities Risk Assessment Models Risk Assessment Methods Risk Communication Definitions Internal Risk Communication External Risk Communication Problem Identification for Risk Management What's a Problem? What's an Opportunity? Becoming Aware of Problems and Opportunities Problem and Opportunity Identification Techniques The P&O Statement Brainstorming What Can You Brainstorm? Background Avoid Problems in Your Process A Few Good Techniques 3x Yeah Group Evaluations with Colored Dots Do You Need a Facilitator? Addendum Opportunity Costs and Trade-Offs Economics for Risk Managers Economics and Decision Making Economic Basis for Interactions among People Principles of the Economy as a Whole Making Trade-Offs Economic Analysis Qualitative Risk Assessment Risk = Probability x Consequence A Generic Process More or Less Risk Risk Narratives Evidence Maps Ordering Techniques The Risk Matrix Qualitative Risk Assessment Models MCDA A Semiquantitative Risk Assessment Example The Art and Practice of Risk Assessment Modeling Types of Models A Model-Building Process Simulation Models Required Skill Sets Probability Review Two Schools of Thought Probability Essentials How Do We Get Probabilities? Working with Probabilities Why You Need to Know This Choosing a Probability Distribution Graphical Review Strategy for Selecting a Probability Distribution Example 1 Example 2 A Dozen Useful Probability Distributions for Risk Assessors Probability Elicitation Probability Words Subjective Probability When to Do an Elicitation Making Judgments under Uncertainty Responding to Heuristics The Elicitation Protocol Calibration Multiple Experts Monte Carlo Process Background A Two-Step Process How Many Iterations? Sampling Method An Illustration Probabilistic Scenario Analysis Common Scenarios Types of Scenario Analysis Scenario Comparisons Tools for Constructing Scenarios Adding Probability to the Scenarios An Example Sensitivity Analysis Qualitative Sensitivity Analysis Quantitative Sensitivity Analysis The Point Presenting and Using Assessment Results Understand Your Assessment Output Data Before You Explain It Examine the Quantities Examine the Probabilities Examine Relationships Answer the Questions Visualization of Data Decision Making under Uncertainty Message Development Communication Models The Need for Message Strategies for Risk Communication Crisis Communication Message Mapping Impediments to Risk Communication Developing Risk Communication Messages Appendix A: The Language of Risk and ISO 31000 ISO 31000 Enterprise Risk Management Observations Appendix B: Using Palisade's Decision Tools Suite TopRank @RISK PrecisionTree Index All chapters include an introduction, summary, and references.ReviewsAuthor InformationCharles Yoe is a professor of economics at Notre Dame of Maryland University, Baltimore, U.S.A., and an independent risk analysis consultant and trainer. Working extensively for U.S. and other government agencies as a consultant and risk analyst, his wide range of risk experience includes international trade, food safety, natural disasters, public works, homeland security, ecosystem restoration, resource development, navigation, planning, and water resources. As a consultant to private industry, his work includes a discrete but wide variety of concerns. He has trained professionals from more than one hundred countries in risk analysis and conducted customized risk training programs for government agencies and private industry in over two dozen nations. Tab Content 6Author Website:Countries AvailableAll regions |
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