Overview

Natural variability in the annual flow of the Nile River has been the subject of great interest to the civilizations that have historically occupied the banks of that river. The stories in the Bible and the Koran about the dream of prophet Joseph and the Pharaoh of Egypt point, among other things, to the importance of the Nile water to the ancient civilizations of Egypt. These stories tell of a prediction regarding a period of food surplus followed by a famine episode in Egypt. In recent history, the High Aswan Dam was constructed to control the annual flow of the Nile and to protect the region against droughts and floods that have clearly affected its people for millennia. The huge structure of the dam stands as a witness to the desperate efforts by man to control the natural variability of this vital resource. Any reduction in the uncertainty about the Nile flood would represent a valuable contribution to water resources management in Egypt. This is particularly true given the natural and social conditions in this arid region, where water is by far the most important natural resource, and where the current population problem will increase the demand on water beyond the generous supply of the Nile. The Chapters of this book offer detailed analysis of how conditions in the global oceans impact the hydrology of the Nile, and how these teleconnections can be used to improve seasonal forecasting of the Nile floods. The same teleconnections are also used to explain how climate change may impact the hydrology and climate of the Nile basin. All those interested in understanding past or future variability in the Nile floods will find relevant lessons in the following pages of the book.

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9781734069662

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