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Author:   Dennis Sherwood ,  Dr Robin Bevan
Publisher:   Canbury Press
Imprint:   Canbury Press
Dimensions:   Width: 15.60cm , Height: 3.20cm , Length: 23.40cm
Weight:   0.650kg
ISBN:  

9781912454990

ISBN 10:   1912454998
Pages:   414
Publication Date:   04 August 2022
Audience:   General/trade ,  College/higher education ,  Professional and scholarly ,  General ,  Tertiary & Higher Education
Format:   Hardback
Publisher's Status:   Active
Availability:   In Print  
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Table of Contents

FOREWORD by Robin Bevan, Headteacher, Southend High School for Boys NEU Past National President, 2020-21 CHAPTER 1: EXAM GRADES ARE IMPORTANT THURSDAY, 15TH AUGUST 2019 A FACT THAT MIGHT BE A SURPRISE WHAT THIS BOOK IS ABOUT SOME RELEVANT EVIDENCE CHAPTER 2: EXAMS IN ENGLAND WHAT THIS CHAPTER IS ABOUT THREE QUICK QUESTIONS GCSE, AS AND A-LEVEL EXAM CENTRES AND SCHOOLS AWARDING BODIES THE REGULATORS – OFSTED, THE DFE, AND OFQUAL THE HOUSE OF COMMONS EDUCATION COMMITTEE MARKING THE RANK ORDER GRADE STRUCTURES AND GRADE BOUNDARIES CRITERION REFERENCING, COHORT REFERENCING AND NORM REFERENCING Criterion referencing Cohort referencing Norm referencing CHALLENGES AND APPEALS HOW THE APPEALS PROCESS WORKS NOW CHAPTER 3: ARE EXAM GRADES 99.2% ACCURATE? SOME REALLY GOOD NEWS EDEXCEL’S CLAIM EDEXCEL’S 99.2% NUMBER EDEXCEL ARE NOT ALONE… …BUT OFQUAL KNEW THIS, CERTAINLY IN 2014 CHAPTER 4: TWO IMPORTANT WORDS: ‘ACCURATE’ AND ‘RELIABLE’ WHAT DOES ‘ACCURATE’ MEAN? CAN EXAM MARKS EVER BE ACCURATE? FUZZINESS CAN EXAM GRADES EVER BE ACCURATE? RELIABILITY THE BIG QUESTION CHAPTER 5 – SUMMER 2016: OFQUAL MAKE IT HARDER TO APPEAL WHY THE APPEALS PROCESS IS IMPORTANT THE ‘REASONABLENESS’ TEST IS THE ‘REASONABLENESS’ TEST REASONABLE? SOME NUMBERS WHAT’S GOING ON? WHAT HAPPENED IN 2016 THE OUTCOME CHAPTER 6: OFQUAL’S FIRST MEASURES OF GRADE RELIABILITY MARKING CONSISTENCY METRICS, NOVEMBER 2016 OFQUAL’S KEY FINDINGS WHY ARE GRADES UNRELIABLE? THE STING IN THE CAPTION MAKING GCSE GRADES EVEN MORE UNRELIABLE HOW THE PRESS REPORTED THE SUMMER 2017 RESULTS ‘IT ALL COMES OUT IN THE WASH’ AUGUST 2018 CHAPTER 7: OFQUAL’S REAL MEASURES OF GRADE RELIABILITY MARKING CONSISTENCY METRICS – An Update, NOVEMBER 2018 THE REAL RELIABILITIES OF EXAM GRADES WHAT IS THE AVERAGE RELIABILITY OVER ALL SUBJECTS? WHAT THESE NUMBERS MEAN GRADE RELIABILITY BY MARK ‘UNFORTUNATE’ AND ‘LUCKY’ STUDENTS WHY OFQUAL’S MEASUREMENTS ARE UNDERESTIMATES CHAPTER 8 – WHY GRADES ARE UNRELIABLE THE STORY SO FAR… THREE REASONS WHY MARKING IS NOT THE PROBLEM ‘COMMON SENSE’ A MORE POWERFUL EXPLANATION – FUZZINESS FUZZINESS IS A PROPERTY OF THE SUBJECT ONLY ONE WAY TO MEASURE FUZZINESS WHY FUZZINESS IS IMPORTANT… …BUT OFQUAL REFUSE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THIS CHAPTER 9 – NOVEMBER 2018 TO SUMMER 2019 THE PRESS RESPONSE TO OFQUAL’S UPDATE HEPI, 2019 THE DAILY TELEGRAPH, 10TH AUGUST 2019 THE SUNDAY TIMES, 11TH AUGUST 2019 THE DAILY TELEGRAPH, 13TH AUGUST 2019 THE BBC, GCSE RESULTS DAY, 22ND AUGUST 2019 WHAT HAPPENED NEXT CHAPTER 10 – 2020: CAGS AND RANK ORDERS EXAMS ARE CANCELLED OFQUAL’S GUIDANCE AND CONSULTATION WHAT SCHOOLS HAD TO DO THE CAGS THE RANK ORDER STATISTICAL STANDARDISATION CAN YOU GUESS THE ALGORITHM? STATISTICAL STANDARDISATION, GRADE INFLATION AND NORM REFERENCING ROUNDING STATISTICS WHAT OFQUAL SHOULD HAVE DONE Define all the rules Give every school the same spreadsheet Expect, and allow for, exceptions and outliers A PUZZLE CHAPTER 11: THE GREAT CAG CAR CRASH OFQUAL’S BLOG OF 18TH MAY 2020 ALAS, POOR ISAAC EARLY WARNINGS THE EDUCATION SELECT COMMITTEE REPORT OF 11TH JULY 2020 OFQUAL’S 2020 SUMMER SYMPOSIUM THE GUARDIAN, 8TH AUGUST 2020 THE SCOTTISH PRECEDENT OFQUAL CHANGES THE RULES FOR APPEALS GAVIN WILLIAMSON’S APPEALS ‘TRIPLE LOCK’ A-LEVEL RESULTS DAY, 13TH AUGUST 2020 … AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE FUSE BURNS… THE EXPLOSION CHAPTER 12 - THE AFTERMATH 206 THE REACTION WHY WAS THE ALGORITHM THROWN AWAY? WERE THE CAGS RIGHT? OR INDEED FAIR? WILL THE REAL GRADE PLEASE STAND UP? THE ALGORITHM EXAM GRADES ARE ‘RELIABLE TO ONE GRADE EITHER WAY’ CHAPTER 13 - SUMMER 2021: THE TAGS 233 EXAMS ARE CANCELLED AGAIN ‘WE’RE TRUSTING TEACHERS, NOT ALGORITHMS’ PERHAPS TEACHERS REALLY CAN BE TRUSTED… WERE TAGS FAIR? TOWARDS 2022, AND BEYOND… MARCH 2022 CHAPTER 14 – NINE WAYS TO DELIVER RELIABLE AND TRUSTWORTHY GRADES SETTING THE SCENE WHAT’S THE PROBLEM WE HAVE TO SOLVE? THREE DIFFERENT STRATEGIES Strategy 1 – Reduce fuzziness to zero Strategy 2 – Accept fuzziness exists and change existing processes a little Strategy 3 – Accept fuzziness exists and do something quite different STRATEGIES THAT REDUCE FUZZINESS TO ZERO Solution 1 – Only one examiner Solution 2 – Artificial intelligence (AI) Solution 3 – Multiple-choice exams Solution 4 – Tighter mark schemes Solution 5 – Better training of examiners, better quality control STRATEGIES THAT ACCEPT THAT FUZZINESS EXISTS, AND CHANGE EXISTING PROCESSES A LITTLE Solution 6 – Double marking Solution 7 – Use grades Solution 8 – Fewer, wider, grades Solution 9 – Different grade structures for different subjects CHAPTER 15 – FIVE FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT WAYS TO DELIVER RELIABLE AND TRUSTWORTHY ASSESSMENTS FIVE MORE SOLUTIONS AN EASY WAY TO ESTIMATE ANY SUBJECT’S FUZZINESS f SOLUTION 10 – AWARD GRADES DETERMINED BY m + f SOLUTION 11 – AWARD GRADES DETERMINED BY m – f SOLUTION 12 – TWO GRADES SOLUTION 13 – THREE GRADES SOLUTION 14 – THROW GRADES AWAY AND AWARD m ± f A FINAL THOUGHT CHAPTER 16 – OVER TO YOU… APPENDIX - FUZZINESS, A DEEPER DIVE REFERENCES ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS INDEX

Reviews

'Know an A Level student who you were absolutely sure should nail an A* but ended up with a B? Well, they probably should have got that A* but were a victim of this scandal. Sherwood's work changed my outlook. Let him change yours too.' -- Robert Campbell, former Chief Executive, Morris Education Trust 'Dennis has been challenging our thinking about assessment and the awarding of grades for many years, combining detailed research with an engaging manner and clear explanations... this is an important contribution to our thinking.' -- Bill Watkin, Chief Executive, Sixth Form Colleges Association 'Dennis Sherwood asks the questions about exam grades that no one really wants to answer. His analysis suggests that much of what we think we know about school exams is based at best on wishful thinking and at worst on wilful misrepresentation of statistics. But he also has some positive suggestions for improvement. Missing the Mark is an uncomfortable but important read.' -- Melvyn Roffe, Chair, Headmasters' and Headmistresses' Conference 'Missing a grade can result in university or college applications beingrejected. Dennis Sherwood asks the $64,000 question: 'Are grades reliable enough for the purposes they are supposed to serve?' This book presents an insightful analysis of this important matter, including the rules introduced in 2016 to reduce the number of appeals, the controversial grading processes in 2020 and 2021 when exams were cancelled, why 'real' grades are so unreliable, and some solutions too.' -- Huy Duong, parent 'Everyone in UK education should reflect upon the problems identified in this powerful book - and then decide what to do about them.' -- Nick Hillman, Director, Higher Education Policy Institute 'Anyone with an interest in how examinations are assessed, from those in government, regulators, schools, colleges, universities to employers, teachers, parents and students, should read Dennis Sherwood's incisive analysis. His conclusions will have a profound impact on our idea of the accuracy, reliability and fairness of examinations.' -- Mike Larkin, Emeritus Professor Queen's University of Belfast and Total Equality For Students 'Dennis provides a clear, step-by-step outline of what is going so terribly wrong and the easy ways to remedy this.' -- Ollie Green, A-level student

'Know an A Level student who you were absolutely sure should nail an A* but ended up with a B? Well, they probably should have got that A* but were a victim of this scandal. Sherwood's work changed my outlook. Let him change yours too.' - Robert Campbell, former Chief Executive, Morris Education Trust 'Dennis has been challenging our thinking about assessment and the awarding of grades for many years, combining detailed research with an engaging manner and clear explanations... this is an important contribution to our thinking.' - Bill Watkin, Chief Executive, Sixth Form Colleges Association 'Dennis Sherwood asks the questions about exam grades that no one really wants to answer. His analysis suggests that much of what we think we know about school exams is based at best on wishful thinking and at worst on wilful misrepresentation of statistics. But he also has some positive suggestions for improvement. Missing the Mark is an uncomfortable but important read.' - Melvyn Roffe, Chair, Headmasters' and Headmistresses' Conference 'Missing a grade can result in university or college applications being rejected. Dennis Sherwood asks the $64,000 question: 'Are grades reliable enough for the purposes they are supposed to serve?' This book presents an insightful analysis of this important matter, including the rules introduced in 2016 to reduce the number of appeals, the controversial grading processes in 2020 and 2021 when exams were cancelled, why 'real' grades are so unreliable, and some solutions too.' - Huy Duong, parent 'Everyone in UK education should reflect upon the problems identified in this powerful book - and then decide what to do about them.' - Nick Hillman, Director, Higher Education Policy Institute Anyone with an interest in how examinations are assessed, from those in government, regulators, schools, colleges, universities to employers, teachers, parents and students, should read Dennis Sherwood's incisive analysis. His conclusions will have a profound impact on our idea of the accuracy, reliability and fairness of examinations. - Mike Larkin, Emeritus Professor Queen's University of Belfast and Total Equality For Students 'Dennis provides a clear, step-by-step outline of what is going so terribly wrong and the easy ways to remedy this.' - Ollie Green, A-level student 'Know an A Level student who you were absolutely sure should nail an A* but ended up with a B? Well, they probably should have got that A* but were a victim of this scandal. Sherwood's work changed my outlook. Let him change yours too.' - Robert Campbell, former Chief Executive, Morris Education Trust 'Dennis has been challenging our thinking about assessment and the awarding of grades for many years, combining detailed research with an engaging manner and clear explanations... this is an important contribution to our thinking.' - Bill Watkin, Chief Executive, Sixth Form Colleges Association 'Dennis Sherwood asks the questions about exam grades that no one really wants to answer. His analysis suggests that much of what we think we know about school exams is based at best on wishful thinking and at worst on wilful misrepresentation of statistics. But he also has some positive suggestions for improvement. Missing the Mark is an uncomfortable but important read.' - Melvyn Roffe, Chair, Headmasters' and Headmistresses' Conference 'Missing a grade can result in university or college applications being rejected. Dennis Sherwood asks the $64,000 question: 'Are grades reliable enough for the purposes they are supposed to serve?' This book presents an insightful analysis of this important matter, including the rules introduced in 2016 to reduce the number of appeals, the controversial grading processes in 2020 and 2021 when exams were cancelled, why 'real' grades are so unreliable, and some solutions too.' - Huy Duong, parent 'Everyone in UK education should reflect upon the problems identified in this powerful book - and then decide what to do about them.' - Nick Hillman, Director, Higher Education Policy Institute Anyone with an interest in how examinations are assessed, from those in government, regulators, schools, colleges, universities to employers, teachers, parents and students, should read Dennis Sherwood's incisive analysis. His conclusions will have a profound impact on our idea of the accuracy, reliability and fairness of examinations. - Mike Larkin, Emeritus Professor Queen's University of Belfast and Total Equality For Students 'Dennis provides a clear, step-by-step outline of what is going so terribly wrong and the easy ways to remedy this.' - Ollie Green, A-level student

Author Information

Dennis Sherwood is a management consultant with experience of solving complex problems. He has a Physics Masters from the University of Cambridge, an MPhil in Molecular Biophysics and Biochemistry from Yale University and a PhD in biology from the University of California in San Diego. After being a consulting partner at Deloitte Haskins + Sells, and Coopers & Lybrand, he became an executive director at Goldman Sachs. He now runs his own business, The Silver Bullet Machine Manufacturing Company Limited, specialising in organisational creativity and innovation. He is author of 14 books. Dr Robin Bevan is Headteacher of Southend High School for Boys. He was National President of the National Education Union in 2020-21.

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