Overview

U.S. policymakers claim that a terror-cartel link exists and poses an immediate threat to U.S. national security. The 2011 Strategy to Combat Transnational Organized Crime (TOC) states While the crime-terror nexus is still mostly opportunistic, this nexus is critical nonetheless, especially if it were to involve the successful criminal transfer of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) material to terrorists or their penetration of human smuggling networks as a means for terrorists to enter the United States. While both groups independently represent significant threats to U.S. national security, there is not enough evidence to support the claim that the two groups have established an alliance and are working in collaboration against U.S. interests. Rather they both operate in important illicit markets, albeit most likely at arms-length. Mexican cartels exacerbate already demanding law enforcement challenges along the southern U.S. and Mexico border with large scale drug trafficking, gun smuggling, human trafficking and smuggling, illegal immigration, and the violence associated with these activities in pursuit of profits. Terrorist organizations on the other hand seek to destabilize the U.S. and its allies through the use of violence and fear. They threaten the principles, values, and security of Americans and our allies both on the home front and abroad. With such a disparity between the two groups' objectives, the thought of an alliance between the two is highly unlikely and as the 2011 Strategy stated, opportunistic at best.This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.The claim of a cartel-terror nexus has been around for at least a decade. Many articles have been written on the potential for it and even national policy warns against it. For example, the 2011 Strategy to Combat Transnational Organized Crime states While the crime-terror nexus is still mostly opportunistic, this nexus is critical nonetheless, especially if it were to involve the successful criminal transfer of WMD material to terrorists or their penetration of human smuggling networks as a means for terrorists to enter the United States. In order to fully understand the context of the situation one must start with definitions and terminology used by those organizations charged with combating cartels and terrorist organizations. According to the Oxford Dictionary a cartel is an association of manufacturers or suppliers with the purpose of maintaining prices at a high level and restricting competition; neither Department of Defense (DoD) nor Department of Homeland Security (DHS) have a published definition for cartel. For purposes of this study it is important to note that the agglomeration of criminal organizations acting in concert can be considered a cartel. When criminal organizations are dispersed and don't act in concert to control supply, then the drug market can be said to be more competitive since a few dominant players are not able to fix prices. More competitive markets are the problematic ones because smaller players might be tempted into taking risks on behalf of terrorist groups.

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