Overview

Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a China specialist based in Hong Kong, provides an overview of “Thucydides’ Trap,” as coined by political scientist Graham Allison to describe the inescapable conflict between Beijing and Washington. Is China’s growing power a threat to the United States? Could it lead to war between the two nations? Economically and militarily stronger, and more nationalist than ever, the People’s Republic of China is increasingly tempted to use force to assert its power, especially in its immediate region. First, the author considers the factors around the threat of war, specifically on the Chinese side, then presents the three most likely armed conflict scenarios: around Taiwan; in the South China Sea; or in the Senkaku Islands under Japanese control. Cabestan also analyses the tensions between China and India along their common borders, which were revived in 2020. But the most likely scenario, according to Cabestan, would be a rapid, piecemeal attack, aimed at tearing borders apart or defending vested interests – not to mention increased cyber warfare. It could also manifest itself as the emergence of a new type of cold war, punctuated by crises bordering on either a nuclear strike or the use of new weapons. U.S.-Chinese tensions and the many potential fronts on which they could elevate are a conflict-in-waiting which will weigh on the 21st century and dominate international life as China seeks to become entrenched as a dominant world power.

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9781538169889

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Reviews

Veteran China scholar Jean-Pierre Cabestan provides a masterful and lucid assessment of the prospects for conflict with China. Going beyond the familiar 'Thucydides trap' analyses, he persuasively evaluates both the most obvious and some of less evident possible pathways to war between China and its neighbors and, in turn, the United States.--Jacques deLisle, Director, Center for the Study of Contemporary China, University of Pennsylvania Will China and America soon be at war over Taiwan? Many hawkish elites in both countries think so, and they have considerable domestic power in both governments - though they might be wrong. Jean-Pierre Cabestan has deep knowledge of Taiwan, mainland China, and America too. He surveys the whole Asian landscape around China, including India and Japan. He assesses the applicability (or not) of Thucydides trap warnings that predict conflict between the world's two most powerful militaries. Everyone who is interested in the future should read this book.--Lynn T. White, Princeton University Jean-Pierre Cabestan gives an excellent overview of key areas with regard to China's current security approach. It addresses several potential conflicts, from Taiwan to the South China Sea and the Senkaku islands, and the Sino-Indian border. It is not trying to be exhaustive but focuses on critical areas. The best part is without a doubt the chapter on Taiwan, a territory the author knows well. Cabestan is good at presenting materials in a clear and pedagogical manner.--Philippe Le Corre, Senior Fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute, Center for China Analysis Jean-Pierre Cabestan's Facing China is an important work. He examines China's national security policies from the inside out, looking first at how China's officials and scholars define and debate national interests and whether China can effectively advance those interests with military power. Cabestan then applies his analytical template to three theaters: Taiwan, Japan, and India. His balanced judgments should be a part of any discussion of China's future trajectory.--Richard C. Bush, Senior Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, The Brookings Institution In this systematic study, veteran China scholar Jean-Pierre Cabestan digs deep into different potentialities for conflict on China's periphery--vis-a-vis Taiwan, Japan, India, Southeast Asia, and the United States. This is a study of both calculations and capabilities. The author demonstrates how, in each case, real conflict could erupt--due to a potent combination of mutual misperceptions and miscalculations, China's revanchist nationalism, provocations, or unintended accidents. A significant contribution to the literature on Asian security.--David Shambaugh, George Washington University

In this systematic study, veteran China scholar Jean-Pierre Cabestan digs deep into different potentialities for conflict on China's periphery--vis-a-vis Taiwan, Japan, India, Southeast Asia, and the United States. This is a study of both calculations and capabilities. The author demonstrates how, in each case, real conflict could erupt--due to a potent combination of mutual misperceptions and miscalculations, China's revanchist nationalism, provocations, or unintended accidents. A significant contribution to the literature on Asian security.--David Shambaugh, George Washington University

Author Information

Jean-Pierre Cabestan is emeritus senior researcher at the French Center for Scientific Research, Paris, and emeritus professor of political science, department of government and international studies at Hong Kong Baptist University. He is also associate researcher at the Asia Centre, Paris and at the French Centre for Research on Contemporary China, Hong Kong. His main themes of research are Chinese politics and law, China’s foreign and security policies, China-Africa relations, China-Taiwan relations and Taiwanese politics. His most recent publications are China Tomorrow: Democracy or Dictatorship? (Rowman & Littlefield, 2019) and Demain la Chine: guerre ou paix? (China Tomorrow: War or Peace?, Gallimard, 2021), due to be published in English by Rowman & Littlefield in early 2023.

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