Overview

This book provides the first assessment of the performance of three leading European polities in providing estimative intelligence during an era of surprise. It develops a new framework for conducting postmortems guided by a normative model of anticipatory foreign policy. The comparative analysis focuses on how the UK, the EU and Germany handled three cases of major surprises: the Arab uprisings, the rise to power of the Islamic State (ISIS), and the Russian annexation of Crimea. It considers not just government intelligence assessments, but also diplomatic reporting and expert open sources and how these assessments were received by organisational leaders. The book tests and develops new theories about the causes of strategic surprises, going beyond a common focus on intelligence versus policy failures to identify challenges and factors that cut across both communities. With the help of former senior officials, the book identifies lessons yet to be learnt by European polities to better anticipate and prepare for future surprises.

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9781399505512

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Reviews

"This book, alongside the extensive research that underpins it, offers an array of noteworthy contributions that deserve attention. [...] In summary, Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policy provides a balanced and multi>faceted perspective, making it a valuable resource for scholars, practitioners, and researchers inter>ested in the intricate world of intelligence and its interplay with foreign policy.--Antonio M. D�az-Fern�ndez, University of C�diz ""Intelligence and National Security"" Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking is a welcome addition to the intelligence literature, and one that moves beyond state-on-state conflict to provide wider examples of regime change, internal stability, and hybrid threats. --Dan Lomas ""Diplomacy & Statecraft"" In conclusion, Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policy is an empirical, theoretical and conceptual pillar for the discipline, in the European context and beyond. Rooted in the highest academic rigour and in methodologically sound research, this book is a fundamental read for scholars, practitioners, and decisionmakers of anticipatory foreign policy. --Lucia Frigo, University of London ""Journal of Intelligence History"" This book provides a holistic approach toward estimative intelligence and anticipatory foreign policy--another excellent contribution to the literature on intelligence. --Sebastiaan Rietjens ""International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence"" This book, alongside the extensive research that underpins it, offers an array of noteworthy contributions that deserve attention. [...] In summary, Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policy provides a balanced and multifaceted perspective, making it a valuable resource for scholars, practitioners, and researchers interested in the intricate world of intelligence and its interplay with foreign policy. --Antonio M. D�az-Fern�ndez, University of C�diz ""Intelligence and National Security"" This volume makes a unique empirical contribution to a less trodden yet increasingly critical subject of estimative intelligence in the European context. The contributors go beyond low hanging fruit of issues like cognitive bias to diagnose a broader complex suite of cultural, institutional, and professional factors at the heart of estimative intelligence failure. A must read for scholars, practitioners and policy makers interested in managing strategic surprise. --Patrick F Walsh, Charles Sturt University"

This book, alongside the extensive research that underpins it, offers an array of noteworthy contributions that deserve attention. [...] In summary, Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policy provides a balanced and multi>faceted perspective, making it a valuable resource for scholars, practitioners, and researchers inter>ested in the intricate world of intelligence and its interplay with foreign policy.--Antonio M. Díaz-Fernández, University of Cádiz ""Intelligence and National Security"" Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking is a welcome addition to the intelligence literature, and one that moves beyond state-on-state conflict to provide wider examples of regime change, internal stability, and hybrid threats. --Dan Lomas ""Diplomacy & Statecraft"" In conclusion, Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policy is an empirical, theoretical and conceptual pillar for the discipline, in the European context and beyond. Rooted in the highest academic rigour and in methodologically sound research, this book is a fundamental read for scholars, practitioners, and decisionmakers of anticipatory foreign policy. --Lucia Frigo, University of London ""Journal of Intelligence History"" This book provides a holistic approach toward estimative intelligence and anticipatory foreign policy--another excellent contribution to the literature on intelligence. --Sebastiaan Rietjens ""International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence"" This book, alongside the extensive research that underpins it, offers an array of noteworthy contributions that deserve attention. [...] In summary, Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policy provides a balanced and multifaceted perspective, making it a valuable resource for scholars, practitioners, and researchers interested in the intricate world of intelligence and its interplay with foreign policy. --Antonio M. Díaz-Fernández, University of Cádiz ""Intelligence and National Security"" This volume makes a unique empirical contribution to a less trodden yet increasingly critical subject of estimative intelligence in the European context. The contributors go beyond low hanging fruit of issues like cognitive bias to diagnose a broader complex suite of cultural, institutional, and professional factors at the heart of estimative intelligence failure. A must read for scholars, practitioners and policy makers interested in managing strategic surprise. --Patrick F Walsh, Charles Sturt University

Author Information

Christoph Meyer, Professor of European and International Politics, King's College London. Eva Michaels, Beatriu de Pinos Fellow. Aviva Guttman, Lecturer in Strategy and Intelligence, Aberystwyth University. Michael S. Goodman, Reader in Intelligence and International Affairs, King's College London.

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