Overview

To what extent do cyberspace operations increase the risks of escalation between nation-state rivals? Scholars and practitioners have been concerned about cyber escalation for decades, but the question remains hotly debated. The issue is increasingly important for international politics as more states develop and employ offensive cyber capabilities, and as the international system is increasingly characterized by emergent multipolarity. In Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace, Erica D. Lonergan and Shawn W. Lonergan tackle this question head-on, presenting a comprehensive theory that explains the conditions under which cyber operations may lead to escalation. In doing so, they challenge long-held assumptions about strategic interactions in cyberspace, arguing that cyberspace is not as dangerous as the conventional wisdom might suggest. In some cases, cyber operations could even facilitate the de-escalation of international crises. To support their claims, Lonergan and Lonergan test their theory against a range of in-depth case studies, including strategic interactions between the United States and key rivals; a series of case studies of the role of cyber operations in international crises; and plausible future scenarios involving cyber operations during conflict. They then apply their analytical insights to policymaking, making the case that skepticism is warranted about the overall efficacy of employing cyber power for strategic ends. By exploring the role of cyber operations in routine competition, crises, and warfighting, Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace presents nuanced insights about how cyberspace affects international politics.

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9780197550885

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Reviews

Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace deftly demonstrates why the realities of cyberspace don't match up to the hype. Erica and Shawn Lonergan provide an exemplary frame to demystify the implications of cyberspace for geopolitics and, in doing so, demonstrates to security practitioners the nuances and challenges of nation-state cyber operations. * Colin Ahern, Former Acting CISO, New York City Cyber Command * As cyber technology has rapidly permeated every aspect of modern life, analysis has been scrambling to catch up with its impact on international conflict. Lonergan and Lonergan skillfully examine the risks in the aspect of greatest potential danger, escalation within and beyond the cyber realm. Their careful assessment goes beyond the facile intuitions that have dominated much commentary so far. It is refreshingly less alarmist than much conventional wisdom on several crucial facets of the question, while confronting the more frightening prospects on others. This book is the definitive work to date on escalation in cyber conflict. * Richard K. Betts, Leo A. Shifrin Professor of War and Peace Studies, Columbia University * Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace is a must-read for all policymakers across the national security enterprise as well as senior leaders in the military, homeland security, and intelligence communities. It provides critical insight into the nature of strategic interactions in cyberspace and the implications for crisis and conflict. The book reinforces and extends the core findings of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission, which has emphatically demonstrated that cyberspace presents crucial challenges and opportunities for the United States and the international system. * Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Executive Director, Cyberspace Solarium Commission * Geopolitical risk stemming from cyber operations has been at the forefront of critical infrastructure protection for some time. In Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace, Erica and Shawn Lonergan provide novel insights to understand how to conceive of and manage this risk. This book has the rare quality of being both academically rigorous while also offering actionable recommendations for practitioners. * Scott DePasquale, President and CEO, Analysis and Resilience Center for Systemic Risk * This specialty book challenges the tendency of many cybersecurity authors to treat new information technology as a threat that will eventually destroy the world order and kill everyone... It will be interesting to see whether this level-headed, militarily oriented book will lead to a broader reassessment of the threat that cyberattacks pose to modern societies. * Choice *

Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace deftly demonstrates why the realities of cyberspace don't match up to the hype. Erica and Shawn Lonergan provide an exemplary frame to demystify the implications of cyberspace for geopolitics and, in doing so, demonstrates to security practitioners the nuances and challenges of nation-state cyber operations. * Colin Ahern, Chief Cyber Officer, State of New York * As cyber technology has rapidly permeated every aspect of modern life, analysis has been scrambling to catch up with its impact on international conflict. Lonergan and Lonergan skillfully examine the risks in the aspect of greatest potential danger, escalation within and beyond the cyber realm. Their careful assessment goes beyond the facile intuitions that have dominated much commentary so far. It is refreshingly less alarmist than much conventional wisdom on several crucial facets of the question, while confronting the more frightening prospects on others. This book is the definitive work to date on escalation in cyber conflict. * Richard K. Betts, Leo A. Shifrin Professor of War and Peace Studies, Columbia University * Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace is a must-read for all policymakers across the national security enterprise as well as senior leaders in the military, homeland security, and intelligence communities. It provides critical insight into the nature of strategic interactions in cyberspace and the implications for crisis and conflict. The book reinforces and extends the core findings of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission, which has emphatically demonstrated that cyberspace presents crucial challenges and opportunities for the United States and the international system. * Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Executive Director, Cyberspace Solarium Commission * Geopolitical risk stemming from cyber operations has been at the forefront of critical infrastructure protection for some time. In Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace, Erica and Shawn Lonergan provide novel insights to understand how to conceive of and manage this risk. This book has the rare quality of being both academically rigorous while also offering actionable recommendations for practitioners. * Scott DePasquale, President and CEO, Analysis and Resilience Center for Systemic Risk *

Author Information

Erica D. Lonergan is Assistant Professor in the Army Cyber Institute at the United States Military Academy at West Point. She is also an Adjunct Research Scholar in the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies and School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. Prior to that, she held positions as a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Atlantic Council. Previously, Erica served as a Senior Director on the U.S. Cyberspace Solarium Commission and held an appointment as a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow, with placement at JPMorgan Chase and US Cyber Command. She also served as an Assistant Professor and Executive Director of the Rupert H. Johnson Grand Strategy Program in the Department of Social Sciences at West Point. Erica received her PhD in Political Science from Columbia University. Shawn W. Lonergan is a Lieutenant Colonel in the US Army Reserve 75th Innovation Command. Prior to joining the Reserves, Shawn was an active-duty cyber officer and played key roles in the National Security Agency (NSA) in the office of Tailored Access Operations; the United States Cyber Command in the Cyber National Mission Force; and the United States Military Academy at West Point, where he taught courses on cyber operations. Shawn is also the former head of the Department of Defense pilot program to protect critical infrastructure from systemic cyber attacks. Shawn is a graduate of the United States Military Academy at West Point and holds two Masters' degrees and a PhD in Political Science from Columbia University. Shawn most recently served as a Senior Advisor to the US Cyberspace Solarium Commission.

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