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OverviewUncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now ) and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administrationa (TM)s National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. Completing the Forecast makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition. Full Product DetailsAuthor: Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts , Board on Atmospheric Sciences & Climate , Division on Earth and Life Studies , National Research CouncilPublisher: National Academies Press Imprint: National Academies Press Dimensions: Width: 21.60cm , Height: 0.80cm , Length: 28.00cm Weight: 0.386kg ISBN: 9780309102551ISBN 10: 0309102553 Pages: 124 Publication Date: 09 November 2006 Audience: Professional and scholarly , Professional & Vocational Format: Paperback Publisher's Status: Active Availability: Out of stock  The supplier is temporarily out of stock of this item. It will be ordered for you on backorder and shipped when it becomes available. Table of Contents1 Front Matter; 2 Summary; 3 1 Introduction; 4 2 Uncertainty in Decision Making; 5 3 Estimating and Validating Uncertainty; 6 4 Communicating Forecast Uncertainty; 7 5 Overarching Recommendations; 8 References; 9 Appendix A: Acronyms and Initialisms; 10 Appendix B: List of Presenters and Other Contributors to the Study Process; 11 Appendix C: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and StaffReviewsAuthor InformationCommittee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts, National Research Council Tab Content 6Author Website:Countries AvailableAll regions |
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