Overview

Better Futures is not just a textbook on risk management. It provides new perspectives to help you embed risk management into your organisation in a more natural way; the aim is to ensure you maximise your opportunity to enjoy 'better futures' rather than worse ones, taking account of the many aspects of uncertainty you and your organisation face. The book is based on the author's experience of working in risk over 35 years where he saw many examples of dysfunctional 'common practice' risk management. He deconstructs every aspect of this practice and rebuilds it into a structure which is more logical and better adapted to embedding in organisations. The work is based on a number of simple principles. For example, there are no risk management processes, just processes which recognise the inevitable risk and uncertainty. The proposed model has three layers. The natural risk management layer builds on what managers have been doing naturally for millennia, augmented by modern and customised approaches to risk analysis. The management layer contains the additional activities which are necessary to make this work within the modern organisation, alongside budgeting and other control activities, and providing stakeholders with information. The governance layer provides the organisation with the means to manage risk consistently and visibly across many spans of control, including external stakeholders, clients, suppliers and contractors. Because there are no dedicated risk processes, the material is presented as a number of tools which the risk manager can adopt in a way which best fits their organisation and its environment. An important aspect of natural risk management is building the appropriate risk culture. This is a subject which has been recognised only relatively recently and a major chapter is devoted to explaining what is known about this topic: how it can be measured and how it can be improved both to match the culture of the organisation and to deal more effectively with risk. Risk management is most of all about making decisions in the face of risk and uncertainty. This is a neglected topic in most risk management thinking which leads to some very inappropriate recipes. Because of this, Better Futures also contains a detailed chapter on the theory of decision making which covers the spectrum from classical economics thinking through the psychological research and work on the nature of rationality. This is essential material for all risk managers.

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9781999664503

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Andy Garlick is in the forefront of risk management professionals. For 35 years he has provided advice to clients on many different aspects of risk, and has helped to build risk-based consulting businesses. For the last 14 years he has been a freelance risk consultant who continues to promote new and different ways of dealing with risk and uncertainty. A mathematician by discipline, Andy originally worked on modelling fluid flows, particularly the modelling of interstellar gases, star formation and explosions. During a long period with the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority he started working on the analysis of the safety risk posed by nuclear reactors and other installations. Randomised methods, also called Monte Carlo, became one of his particular interests. With the privatisation of the UKAEA as AEA Technology, Andy moved into management roles. He became particularly interested in the adaptation of the risk-based approach for other types of plant and, beyond this, to commercial applications in business. His aim was to make the techniques more relevant and more accessible. His final role with AEA Technology was to help found the management consulting practice, Risk Solutions, which is now a successful independent firm. As a director of Manex (UK) Limited, Andy's main project was the London Underground public private partnership. Andy then set up his own consulting firm, The Risk Agenda, which has carried out numerous assignments in the transport and construction sectors. More recently he temporarily moved out of his consulting comfort zone and spent 15 months as an actual risk manager, working for CVB on the East section of the Thames Tideway Tunnel. In 2007 Andy published his book on risk analysis, Estimating Risk: A Management Approach, which is now used as a textbook on many courses. This reflected the purpose of The Risk Agenda to improve the way organisations deal with an uncertain future: - by contributing to the advancement of good practice - by helping organisations adapt this good practice - by working with them on their specific risk challenges. Better Futures has been in development ever since and reflects Andy's experience and thinking on these matters. Andy is a member of the Society for Risk Analysis and a Fellow of the Institute of Risk Management. For many years he helped organise the North West branch of the IRM and its special interest group on PPP/PFI. You can find more about Andy and The Risk Agenda by visiting the website riskagenda.com. The site contains material on risk analysis and risk management, and provides tools and other materials for free download. Andy also runs a blogging site on cloudsofvagueness.com, named for Ken Arrow's famous quotation which so accurately reflects the challenge the risk manager faces. Finally, he has set up the ratitles.com site for sales and feedback on this book and others. As well as consulting services, The Risk Agenda offers courses and lectures based on this book, Estimating Risk and other topics which can be customised for different organisations and audiences. If you would like to learn more, you can email Andy at andy.garlick@riskagenda.com.

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